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Bill Quirin Speed
Points Summary
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Bill Quirin's speed points rank from 0-8. The number
represents the likelihood of the horse to run early, 8 being the most likely.
8's are frontrunners. See
analysis below.
Calculating the Speed Points:
For Sprint Races:
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Use the three most
recent races
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Routes: give a bye
to any horse who competed in a route and led or was within 1 length of leader
at 1C. Proceed to the next ratable sprint or issue another bye. 2 byes
maximum.
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Assign 1 pt for any
sprint in which the horse was 1,2, or 3 at 1C
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Assign 1 pt for a
sprint in which the horse was w/in 2L at 1C (w/in 3L if race was 1f shorter
than today’s)
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Award 1 bonus point
to horse who led or was w/in 1L of the leader at 1C in ALL 3 rated races
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Each horse starts
with one point, but take it away if it fails to beat half the field by 1C in
all 3 races
Exceptions:
1.
Horses with < 3 ratable races, extrapolate their amount of points that
they got in the 1 or 2 races
2.
Suggest the most recent wet track or turf race for race #3 if today’s
race is on turf or wet track.
For route races:
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Use the 3 most recent
races
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Assign 1 point for
any route or sprint in which the horse was 1, 2, or 3 at 1C
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Assign 1 point for
any route in which the horse ran w/in 3L of lead at 1C
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If route was ¼ or
more mile longer than today’s route, give point only if they led at 1C
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Sprints: assign 1 pt
for sprint in which horse was w/in 3L at 1C
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Also assign point
if horse was within 6L at 1C.
Analysis:
 | Any horse with 8
points is a front runner or leader, and will be on the pace |
| A horse with 7 pts is
likely to be on or very close to the pace |
| When 3 horses in a
race combined for 21-24 speed points, or four have a total of 27+, the pace is
very likely to be hot. 24 and above being extremely hot. Pace will likely
fall apart and late movers will have a better chance than usual. |
| 17-20 is a medium hot
pace, and any pace below is fairly slow. |
| On a stretch runner’s
track, lower the criteria to 18 for 3 and 23 for 4 horses |
| For a frontrunner’s
track, top contenders will most likely be the top point earners |
| When a horse has a 4
point advantage over all rivals, he should be examined for a probable lone
front running trip wire to wire |
| When a horse has at
least 5 points AND a 2 point edge over all rivals, a pace advantage exists and
he must be considered as a lone front runner |
| When the top speed
point horse in the field has 4 pts, the pace will be slower than par for the
class. This can lead to a lone front runner or a chaotic race |
Doug's additions:
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If a horse has run within 1/2L of lead at 1C in all races except
one of the last three where he stumbled at the start, consider him still to be
an 8. Look in the comments for descriptions of anamolies in the running
style. You have to use logic and judgement as well as numbers. Look at the other
races, if he ran w/in 1L of lead in them he's probably a legitimate frontrunner.
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I give any horse 2 points for the race if he was
w/in 1L at 1C, regardless of what place he was in. To me there is no difference
if 1 horse is a neck in front of him at 1C and therefore that horse would get 2
pts for the race but the other wouldn't.
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I'm no Bill Quirin but I've found that making
adjustments based on some of these conditions as above helps to better
determine the pace.
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Try not to go too far back in the race chart
because running styles change. Horses going from route to sprint can be hard to
figure.
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If you have any questions or comments about our content please
email doug@ffreview.com
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