The Supertest for Horse Racing

When and Where it is used

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Much has been made recently of the Supertest and its use in horse racing this year. The talk started when 19 out of 20 horses ran backwards in the Kentucky Derby, and 1 ran his usual race and won. The suspicious results chart led to belief that many of the horses had been juiced in prior prep races and were not in the Derby. The latter we know to be true because the Ky Derby for the first time employed the Supertest, a test which indicates more than 140 banned substances. The standard test currently in wide use only detects about five.

It appears the Graded Stakes Commission has decreed that all tracks will use the Supertest in every graded stakes race, or they will presumably "ungrade" the races. This has major implications across the horse racing/ gambling industry. It turns out Santa Anita has been employing the Supertest for their graded races all year, possibly explaining why 4 of the top 6 finishers in the Derby all ran in Santa Anita, and with comparatively unimpressive speed figures.

Down the the nuts and bolts. Here are the preliminary results of a survey of racing jurisdictions across the U.S. It will be updated frequently, so expect more information the next time you check this page.

Commentary:

For the small-time tracks, it's hard to believe they would pursue the supertest if they are not required to, since the incurred expense would seriously hamper profits. However, the major tracks with a lot of graded stakes races will be forced to comply with supertesting for at least the 1-2-3 finishers in graded stakes, according to the Graded Stakes Committee. This bodes well for graded stakes handicapping, but it is certainly turning over a new leaf.

How do you use this info?  Personally, I will not bet on anything except graded stakes races or other races on tracks where they are committed to supertesting.  You must look at the prior performance, what track it was run at, and what kind of race it is. If the race didn't qualify for supertesting, an inflated figure is to be looked at very conspicuously. If their pp's are consistent in other graded races, there is nothing to worry about. Look out for normal figures/performances in graded races but inflated pp's in non-graded races, or those at tracks that don't supertest. This indicates the horse may have been juiced in the races where the trainer could get away with it. Be very skeptical of flashy performances in non-supertested races.
For example: If a horse is jumping into graded stakes competition with the highest speed figures in the field coming off non-graded races, do not be too eager to crown him champ. In fact, likely he will be an overbet and beatable favorite. I have witnessed this case already this year, and in fact profited from it!

Performances before this year may just have to be disregarded in terms of handicapping. A year with supertesting makes a big difference. This year separates the contenders from the pretenders. Afleet Alex was the real thing, the rest of them apparently not (well Giacomo is a good plodder). Next year this will be just as evident. Handicapping graded stakes races will become easier as supertesting is standardized across the board. Next year it will be more a case of what you see is what you get. However, in the meantime, there will continue to be a lot of turmoil in trying to separate the juicees from the contenders. That's why I'm sticking with graded stakes races, in the others I can never figure out who may be juiced.

If you have any questions or comments about our content please email doug@ffreview.com

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